While this traditional approach has been a triumph of science and engineering, designing the equations and algorithms is time-consuming and requires deep expertise, as well as costly compute resources to make accurate predictions.ĭeep learning offers a different approach: using data instead of physical equations to create a weather forecast system. Medium range predictions are important to support key decision-making across sectors, from renewable energy to event logistics, but are difficult to do accurately and efficiently.įorecasts typically rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), which begins with carefully defined physics equations, which are then translated into computer algorithms run on supercomputers. Weather prediction is one of the oldest and most challenging–scientific endeavours. The challenge of global weather forecasting GraphCast is already being used by weather agencies, including ECMWF, which is running a live experiment of our model’s forecasts on its website. And, by open sourcing the model code for GraphCast, we are enabling scientists and forecasters around the world to benefit billions of people in their everyday lives. GraphCast takes a significant step forward in AI for weather prediction, offering more accurate and efficient forecasts, and opening paths to support decision-making critical to the needs of our industries and societies. This ability has the potential to save lives through greater preparedness. It can predict the tracks of cyclones with great accuracy further into the future, identifies atmospheric rivers associated with flood risk, and predicts the onset of extreme temperatures. GraphCast can also offer earlier warnings of extreme weather events. GraphCast predicts weather conditions up to 10 days in advance more accurately and much faster than the industry gold-standard weather simulation system – the High Resolution Forecast (HRES), produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In a paper published in Science, we introduce GraphCast, a state-of-the-art AI model able to make medium-range weather forecasts with unprecedented accuracy. In a world of increasingly extreme weather, fast and accurate forecasts have never been more important. It can dictate how we dress in the morning, provide us with green energy and, in the worst cases, create storms that can devastate communities. The weather affects us all, in ways big and small. Our state-of-the-art model delivers 10-day weather predictions at unprecedented accuracy in under one minute
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